Smugglers Cove is Active again

[BryanCranston]

So earlier today I was in the cove around the time a few items stocked, I refreshed on the minute and didn't see any of the items that stocked in decent quantities.
How?

"Every 60-70 seconds, there is a 1/10 chance that the algorithm is activated.
When it activates, there is a chance for items to stock, depending on how many are left.
We know there are max. 10 out of 101 left of each. This means the probability of each item stocking lies between ((101-100)/100)^2 = 0.01% and ((101-90)/100)^2 = 1.21% depending on how many are left (1 to 10), if the algorithm is run. Since there are 60 or so distinct items that can stock, you can determine the probability that *something* will stock if the algorithm is ran.

When to refresh? Wait at least 70 seconds between refreshes. Since there is a 1/10 chance that the stock algorithm is ran, it takes on average 10 periods for it to run. Since a period can take between 60 and 70 seconds, it will take on average 600 to 700 seconds for the algorithm to run again. There is almost a 100 second uncertainty, so in my opinion it does not make sense to time on the second."


Can confirm the refreshing on the exact minute is inaccurate, It is completely random.

[Shawn]

If refreshing at :00 is a myth then this makes RSing in the cove much more random/difficult

[starsandmoon]

Grey Faerie Doll just restocked.

[Zenitsu]

I'm tired of getting beaten up by these two. 😂 Bros! Just give me the good stuff.

[Ice]

Sorry I'm confused about the whole 10 items stocking thing - what exactly does that mean? Only 10 of each stockable item will be stocked from now until the future and once 10 items of that type have been added, no more, ever?

[BryanCranston]

Sorry I'm confused about the whole 10 items stocking thing - what exactly does that mean? Only 10 of each stockable item will be stocked from now until the future and once 10 items of that type have been added, no more, ever?

Correct. When they introduced the cove eons ago they made it so only 100 of each item will stock there. Until a couple days ago the code had shown that 100/100 of each item had already stocked at the cove. They went in a simply changed the code to 90/100 for each item. My guess is to combat hyperinflation of some of these items and there is potential for them to do it again.

[I_royalty_I]

Sorry I'm confused about the whole 10 items stocking thing - what exactly does that mean? Only 10 of each stockable item will be stocked from now until the future and once 10 items of that type have been added, no more, ever?

I wouldn’t say no more will stock ever.. because that was supposed to be the original intent of the cove. Like mentioned above, 100 were stocked and they weren’t supposed to ever stock again. That changed when TNT made this most recent update. I agree it’s likely to combat the inflation, but realistically, everything is inflated across the board because they keep rereleasing all these items that weren’t supposed to be released again.

[birdies]

Sorry I'm confused about the whole 10 items stocking thing - what exactly does that mean? Only 10 of each stockable item will be stocked from now until the future and once 10 items of that type have been added, no more, ever?

I feel like given the length of time since the first 100 items were sold it would make sense to release at least 100 more of each now rather than 10. People are likely to hoard and just charge the current going prices with so few additional items released, surely. Hopefully they'll release 10 of each every month or so, and maybe add some other super rare items into the pool (marafin when).

[Synth Salazzle]

Did SUAP ever stock?

[donuts210]

Did SUAP ever stock?

I know for a fact that at least one stocked yesterday. Saw a board where someone was selling one they just got from the cove.