Any recommended bets to follow for the Food Club?

[Heretic]

This thread inspired me to crack the food club and figure out its code.

I think I've designed quite the betting strategies with a formula I came up with and designed when recognizing patterns in outcomes during certain ratio aspects.

My algorithm put Squire Venable and Stuff-A-Roo outranking the "next highest est probability". (Which is why many busted, or barely covered yesterday) Which takes into account food difference, however it does not take into account various variable the allergies and favorites can be and then some.


I'm still in testing but i've been coming out pretty successful given the days.

I created a safe betting strategy and a trophy strategy.

Based on my strategy yesterday the absolute least you would have made is 18:9 as we expected. And as we were betting for. The rest of the best were to cover the possible outcomes. I designed the formula to only include arena's I consider safe to bet on. (Which is factored by its ratio and outcome of my formula)

So yesterday i bet 3x3 and 2x2 with a cover for the arbritrage. with their being 3 safe arenas

Yesterday my safe bets came out to be 52:9

I then play riskier, in this event we had a perfect setup. which I take the top two contendors from each arena with exception of arbitrage arena since we can cover it with our last two bets.

so its like making a 3x3 with no arb, except we have an arb. So we can do a 4x4. and place 8 bets, covering almost all possibilities. With the final two bets to cover an arbitrage upset.

Yesterday my trophy bets paid out 224:9 with 4 trophy areans. and Lagoon being a complete bust. Didn't attempt it, but algorithm came back with lucky as favorite


Stay tuned i plan to release the strategy and bets daily

I'd be happy to follow if you start posting your bets.

[JosephCW]

I'm on the same boat. If you make a betting page I will follow.

[|2eap]

I'd be happy to follow if you start posting your bets.

I'm on the same boat. If you make a betting page I will follow.

You guys wont believe this, but my algorithm called the upset of captain crossblades today. After algorithm they were the heavy favorite in the arena.

Allergies and favorites have different values and not necessarily a food difference, which is what many others have not recognized yet. I've discovered a pattern i believe which is showing successful 9/10. So it's not perfect and not completly cracked but I can confidently pick the top two contenders of each arenas if its ratio is -13% or higher. anything below i consider the arena a complete bust and not worth betting. anything -3% or higher I consider a safe arena to bet on.

Food adjustments strength and weight all play a factor.


Which made me really have to redo my entire betting scheme since the page: (you need an account to see links)

Doesnt take this into account. Therefore calling arena's inaccurately on their play-ability.

---------- Post added at 10:36 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:25 PM ----------

There may be ANOTHER factor too i'm not sure about yet. which may be why the 1/10 times I don't get it right. And that is the order in which the food is served.

If a pirate has an allergy early on, would that not prohibit their performance for the rest of the match and so on so forth. Favorites possibly boosting.

Have not confirmed and is just a theory, if I ever do confirm i'll work it into the current working algorithm

But my theory on weight and str, and food favorite being a added bonus to str and allergy bonus being an even greater difference of str.
a person who weighs more in theory can eat more if they have a higher strength.

But someone with less weight but a beast strength could overcome that heavier set person. Like we see in real life hotdog eating contests (that dude from japan who always wins, skinny as a rake)

[JosephCW]

You guys wont believe this, but my algorithm called the upset of captain crossblades today. After algorithm they were the heavy favorite in the arena.

Allergies and favorites have different values and not necessarily a food difference, which is what many others have not recognized yet. I've discovered a pattern i believe which is showing successful 9/10. So it's not perfect and not completly cracked but I can confidently pick the top two contenders of each arenas if its ratio is -13% or higher. anything below i consider the arena a complete bust and not worth betting. anything -3% or higher I consider a safe arena to bet on.

Food adjustments strength and weight all play a factor.


Which made me really have to redo my entire betting scheme since the page: (you need an account to see links)

Doesnt take this into account. Therefore calling arena's inaccurately on their play-ability.

---------- Post added at 10:36 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:25 PM ----------

There may be ANOTHER factor too i'm not sure about yet. which may be why the 1/10 times I don't get it right. And that is the order in which the food is served.

If a pirate has an allergy early on, would that not prohibit their performance for the rest of the match and so on so forth. Favorites possibly boosting.

Have not confirmed and is just a theory, if I ever do confirm i'll work it into the current working algorithm

But my theory on weight and str, and food favorite being a added bonus to str and allergy bonus being an even greater difference of str.
a person who weighs more in theory can eat more if they have a higher strength.

But someone with less weight but a beast strength could overcome that heavier set person. Like we see in real life hotdog eating contests (that dude from japan who always wins, skinny as a rake)

You've seriously put some hard work into figuring out FC. Exciting to see developments be made. .

[|2eap]

You've seriously put some hard work into figuring out FC. Exciting to see developments be made. .

I wanted to beat it to make pure shells. There has to be a pattern. Actually just now thinking on it. The order may not be the factor i'm missing but i'm dumb and haven't been using a prime number for the allergies variable only fave.

But I do know that allergies outweighs Favorites.

if a pirate has 2 favorite foods and two allergies. They'll have a food difference of 0 but really its negative because allergies is weighted more.


if two pirates of identical str and weight matchup head to head

one has 2 favorites and 2 allergy.
the other has neither favorites or allergies

The one with neither will win.

scenario 2

one has 2 favorites and 2 allergies
one has 1 favorite and 1 allergy

one with 1 favorite will win. every time.

[ohfyk1]

Lol that comp eater Matt Stonie defies all odds. I would definitely start following your bets too if/when you share them

[|2eap]

I haven't started postign them yet because i'm still testing, for all we know i could just be getting lucky lmao xP
Today gives a good opportunity to help fine tune the size of favorites versus allergies depending on the outcome of Hidden Cove.

(I'm also watching the food order this round to see if it shows a pattern in which will be the reason why gooblah looses in Hidden Cove if they do.)

My top two's of todays match-ups, doesn't seem like anything exciting is really gonna happen this round as far as upsets. maybe a few small ones but nothing major.

Let's hope I don't eat those words.


Shipwreck:
Fairfax
Puffo

Lagoon:
Ol' Stripey HEAVY favorite
Fed

Treasure Island:
Sir Edmund
Scurvy Dan

Hidden Cove:
Gooblah HEAVY Favorite
Admiral Blackbeard as second. However today will help me find tune my variables sicne we have a heavy favorite food adjustment for young Sproggie. I'd prob skip this one.

Harpoon Harry's:
Franchisco
Lucky

My Trophy Bets:
Risky betting on the heavy favorites. Could drop a cove and do a full 3x3 arena spread with one of the favorites as an arbitrage. It looks most safe to use ol' stripey but gooblah is the usual since hes always strong and heavy. This time I think i'm gonna go unique and do a different cover approach.

Shipwreck: Fairfax
Lagoon: Ol' Stripey
Treasure Island: Sir Edmund
Hidden Cove: Gooblah
Harpoon Harry's: Franchisco

Shipwreck: Fairfax
Lagoon: Ol' Stripey
Treasure Island: Scurvy Dan
Hidden Cove: Gooblah
Harpoon Harry's: Franchisco

Shipwreck: Fairfax
Lagoon: Ol' Stripey
Treasure Island: Sir Edmund
Hidden Cove: Gooblah
Harpoon Harry's: Lucky

Shipwreck: Fairfax
Lagoon: Ol' Stripey
Treasure Island: Scurvy Dan
Hidden Cove: Gooblah
Harpoon Harry's: Lucky

Shipwreck: Puffo
Lagoon: Ol' Stripey
Treasure Island: Sir Edmund
Hidden Cove: Gooblah
Harpoon Harry's: Franchisco

Shipwreck: Puffo
Lagoon: Ol' Stripey
Treasure Island: Scurvy Dan
Hidden Cove: Gooblah
Harpoon Harry's: Franchisco

Shipwreck: Puffo
Lagoon: Ol' Stripey
Treasure Island: Sir Edmund
Hidden Cove: Gooblah
Harpoon Harry's: Lucky

Shipwreck: Puffo
Lagoon: Ol' Stripey
Treasure Island: Scurvy Dan
Hidden Cove: Gooblah
Harpoon Harry's: Lucky

Hidden Cove: Admiral Blackbeard
Harpoon Harry's: Franchisco

Shipwreck: Fairfax
Hidden Cove: Young
Harpoon Harry's: Franchisco

[JosephCW]

-snip-

I'm excited for this.

[|2eap]

I'm excited for this.

See formula only has been accurately calling -13% and above steadily. When it's less than that there is a huge wild factor that takes place I can't figure out.

My safe bets would have only included the three arenas bettable.

Sorry it was a bust this time


In other news, order of food seems to not play a part.

UNLESS its more detailed than we though and each food has a different gain/ minus value.

Cracking that code would be a very long long process

EDIT:

I should have all my bets strats too.

Safe still cashed out big time since it was easily bet table in three.

And my usual trophy bets would have skipped treasure island and lagoon since their bust percentage is so high

List posted above was a modified version of my trophy bets going for the hail mary.

I'll only ever go for the hail mary if there are 2 arbbs available narrowing the arena's down to 3 to bet in. With 1/2 spaces to cover an arbb upset. which usually has the counter at 10:1 or greater.

And I used stripey as a constant, i thought he outweighed enough to win the matchup again why i dont normally bet a trophy run -17.1% or less.

Should have just stuck with the usuals gooblah as the constant when he favored to win and then cover gooblah. Never covered stripey.

Oh well, its why i'm still testing

[keknorris]

Interesting bets and theories |2eap !

I hope you can figure things out and create a better service than daq tools. They are serving me very well, but more is always better!