My name is Yoshikage Kira
06-10-2020, 02:04 PM
Found a interesting guide so wanted to share it here :) All credit goes to DrJay
Requirements:
� Have the campsite unlocked and available AND be on the newest patch 1.2.0
� Have 10 villagers already (recommended, not required though! Still possible w/ <10!)
� Have all personalities represented on your island EXCEPT the one you are attempting to get (Smug for Raymond). A list of all villager personalities can be found here ([Only registered and activated users can see links])
� Be willing to deal with the impacts of giant time-travel (1-3 years worth most likely).
� [Optional] Fence in your flowers so they don�t overrun your island.
1. Begin by time traveling forward at least 6 days from your most recently played date. This should automatically set your campsite to the highest possible spawn rate it can be at, despite when your last camper appeared (20%). Load up Animal Crossing, and go through announcements to where you exit your house. At this point, save your game and exit to the main menu.
2. Close your game, and time travel one day forward.
3. Open your game and start to bring about the announcements. If you have a visitor, Isabelle will make this the first announcement she says (ASSUMING THERE IS NOT AN EVENT). You CAN still have visitors on some event days. If it is an event day, it will be the first announcement following the event.
a. If there is not a visitor, do not let Isabelle finish talking, immediately close the game and time travel 1 day forward and repeat step 3. In fact, you can close the game as soon as you notice that she doesn�t make that mention of a campsite visitor on that day.
b. It is confirmed birthdays can have campsite visitors, however we have no evidence that bug-day/fishing tournaments can have campsite visitors.
4. If you have a visitor, go see who it is! If it�s not the target, save the game and exit. Set your game 6 days forward and return to step 3
5. If it is your visitor, then congratulations! Please save your game (to avoid morning announcements returning for this day and to save progress) and reopen it, heading back to the camper.
6. From here, remember that you will have to win a �game� in order to invite the camper. Even if you lose several times, they will keep playing if you keep talking to them. Eventually, you will win and be prompted with the ability to invite them to your island.
7. The camper will ask a random villager to move out at this point, there's a guide here ([Only registered and activated users can see links]) on how to get the island resident you want to leave
8. So now you got them! They will immediately force the person you kicked out into boxes; so if you would like to trade them, that villager will be available as soon as you complete Step 7
9. Now, save and close your game and TT forward one day, and your previous resident�s house should now be gone and replaced with a �Sold to ____!� sign over a plot of land. At this point save, and TT forward another day and the new campsite villager will be moving in with boxes scattered around their house. Finally, save and TT forward one more time to get them fully moved in.
Some math for spawn rates on mystery island villagers vs campsite villagers
The spawn rates are different: Mystery island visitors spawn semi-randomly, it is currently believed that the game first randomly selects a species for the mystery island resident as shown here ([Only registered and activated users can see links] 816479686000&sa=D&ust=1591816479753000&usg=AFQjCNH35C5Tbbe_5_FpIyszI6V-4SGQzw) and there are 35 species. This means you have a 1/35 shot of encountering any one species on a trip. After this, the actual villager selected from that species will be randomly selected from that species.
That is to say the odds of getting Raymond on an island are:
1/35 * 1/23 (#of cats) = .124%, or effectively 1/8th of 1 percent. In fact, it would take 2400 island visits each in order for 95% of players to have encountered Raymond (1-(1-.00125)^2400)=.95
In contrast, there are only 3 octopi, thus my odds of getting Marina on an island would be:
1/35 * 1/3 (#of octopi) = about 1%, or 8x the likelihood of seeing Raymond on an island. This means it would take 300 island visits each in order for 95% of players to have encountered Marina. (1-(1-.01)^300)=.95
Campsite villagers normally spawn completely randomly but the following point stands: if you are missing a specific personality(s), then (roughly) 60%** of your visitors will be representatives of that personality(s) specifically. This can be used in order to help us spawn the specific villager we want!
Let�s say that my island is represented by all personalities except for a smug because I am hunting for Raymond. The first campsite visitor I have after that would have roughly the following likelihood of being Raymond:
60%*1/34 (#of smugs) = 1.8%, or roughly 15x better odds of getting Raymond in specific ON MY FIRST ATTEMPT than if I tried via mystery islands.
Requirements:
� Have the campsite unlocked and available AND be on the newest patch 1.2.0
� Have 10 villagers already (recommended, not required though! Still possible w/ <10!)
� Have all personalities represented on your island EXCEPT the one you are attempting to get (Smug for Raymond). A list of all villager personalities can be found here ([Only registered and activated users can see links])
� Be willing to deal with the impacts of giant time-travel (1-3 years worth most likely).
� [Optional] Fence in your flowers so they don�t overrun your island.
1. Begin by time traveling forward at least 6 days from your most recently played date. This should automatically set your campsite to the highest possible spawn rate it can be at, despite when your last camper appeared (20%). Load up Animal Crossing, and go through announcements to where you exit your house. At this point, save your game and exit to the main menu.
2. Close your game, and time travel one day forward.
3. Open your game and start to bring about the announcements. If you have a visitor, Isabelle will make this the first announcement she says (ASSUMING THERE IS NOT AN EVENT). You CAN still have visitors on some event days. If it is an event day, it will be the first announcement following the event.
a. If there is not a visitor, do not let Isabelle finish talking, immediately close the game and time travel 1 day forward and repeat step 3. In fact, you can close the game as soon as you notice that she doesn�t make that mention of a campsite visitor on that day.
b. It is confirmed birthdays can have campsite visitors, however we have no evidence that bug-day/fishing tournaments can have campsite visitors.
4. If you have a visitor, go see who it is! If it�s not the target, save the game and exit. Set your game 6 days forward and return to step 3
5. If it is your visitor, then congratulations! Please save your game (to avoid morning announcements returning for this day and to save progress) and reopen it, heading back to the camper.
6. From here, remember that you will have to win a �game� in order to invite the camper. Even if you lose several times, they will keep playing if you keep talking to them. Eventually, you will win and be prompted with the ability to invite them to your island.
7. The camper will ask a random villager to move out at this point, there's a guide here ([Only registered and activated users can see links]) on how to get the island resident you want to leave
8. So now you got them! They will immediately force the person you kicked out into boxes; so if you would like to trade them, that villager will be available as soon as you complete Step 7
9. Now, save and close your game and TT forward one day, and your previous resident�s house should now be gone and replaced with a �Sold to ____!� sign over a plot of land. At this point save, and TT forward another day and the new campsite villager will be moving in with boxes scattered around their house. Finally, save and TT forward one more time to get them fully moved in.
Some math for spawn rates on mystery island villagers vs campsite villagers
The spawn rates are different: Mystery island visitors spawn semi-randomly, it is currently believed that the game first randomly selects a species for the mystery island resident as shown here ([Only registered and activated users can see links] 816479686000&sa=D&ust=1591816479753000&usg=AFQjCNH35C5Tbbe_5_FpIyszI6V-4SGQzw) and there are 35 species. This means you have a 1/35 shot of encountering any one species on a trip. After this, the actual villager selected from that species will be randomly selected from that species.
That is to say the odds of getting Raymond on an island are:
1/35 * 1/23 (#of cats) = .124%, or effectively 1/8th of 1 percent. In fact, it would take 2400 island visits each in order for 95% of players to have encountered Raymond (1-(1-.00125)^2400)=.95
In contrast, there are only 3 octopi, thus my odds of getting Marina on an island would be:
1/35 * 1/3 (#of octopi) = about 1%, or 8x the likelihood of seeing Raymond on an island. This means it would take 300 island visits each in order for 95% of players to have encountered Marina. (1-(1-.01)^300)=.95
Campsite villagers normally spawn completely randomly but the following point stands: if you are missing a specific personality(s), then (roughly) 60%** of your visitors will be representatives of that personality(s) specifically. This can be used in order to help us spawn the specific villager we want!
Let�s say that my island is represented by all personalities except for a smug because I am hunting for Raymond. The first campsite visitor I have after that would have roughly the following likelihood of being Raymond:
60%*1/34 (#of smugs) = 1.8%, or roughly 15x better odds of getting Raymond in specific ON MY FIRST ATTEMPT than if I tried via mystery islands.