China-Vietnam Border War

[zxxnnxxz]

What do you guys think? I am a Vietnamese, and I heard of this lately by my mom. Do you think there is going to be a war, kind of like Russia and Ukraine or more like North Korea and South Korea?

[dexter1ty]

Not at all. A war? Unlikely for some time. It's just an arms race right now with China being significantly ahead of everyone there. Vietnam doesn't have the resources to fight a long term war and they would be absolutely destroyed by air and sea. Some may think that "defeating" (eh, that depends on the interpretation) China back in 1979 means they're still capable of doing it again. Not with the modernization that China has done, Vietnam would get wrecked hence why they've been trying to get many of the SE nations on their side. The problem is the Chinese have manifested themselves in many governments in nations within that region and have established a large amount of political sway. Nations such as Cambodia (who also dislike Vietnam for the occupation even though Vietnam got rid of Pol Pot for them) seem to side with China. Japan is showing support but I doubt they could do much during times of war unless their legislation allows for it by altering the constitution.

Aside from that, the Vietnamese who fled Vietnam after the war are more interested in getting the world to destabilize the current Vietnamese regime and try to hang the former flag. That's all they seem to really care about with all the rallies they participate in. They don't seem to realize that if the Vietnamese regime is gone, that gives incentive for a larger power to stabilize the country through puppets or use that time period of instability to claim more islands in that region. There's not enough political pressure on China for the asinine claims they make.

[caonima]

What do you guys think? I am a Vietnamese, and I heard of this lately by my mom. Do you think there is going to be a war, kind of like Russia and Ukraine or more like North Korea and South Korea?

Honestly, a sino-vietnam war is out of question right now. For the past few decades, China has adopted a non-interventionist foreign policy. Last year CCP's forum had clearly stated China will not start any war. Also, Vietnam is still rather dominated by pro-China Vietnamese, so I doubt there will be any sparks between Vietnam and China. To add on, starting a war at this time will hinder China's attempt to bring back Taiwan. The top agenda of China's diplomats is to finish the goal of returning Taiwan to its motherland before 2050.

May not say the same for Philippines though. It has been pretty aggressive and belligerent lately, attempting to force other ASEAN countries to complete USA's U-shape containment policy on China.

On the side note, the China Vietnam war in the past was a result of Vietnam being a proxy of the Soviet Union to contain China's uprising. There are no clear grudges among both sides.

[Fleur]

Geez, I'm Vietnamese and I'm totally oblivious to all of this... I noticed recently that my family + their friends from Vietnam on Facebook have been posting a lot about how much they hate China etc. etc. so I guess it could get pretty serious? I'm not even sure. Thanks for the info everyone.

[|2eap]

Very informative. We should have more posts like these

[Integra]

Unfortunately no war seems to be out of the question anywhere in the world regardless of what we do. The thing that needs to be looked at more strongly are the reasons for war, current issues surrounding war are generally caused by separatists and radicals/extremists. Sadly we just have to sit by and watch as what happens plays out furhter before actions can take place, this is the same with the recent events in Ukraine. The rest of the world was content to sit down and play a war of words until the Russian-backed Rebels shot down MH17, now it becomes more serious because innocents have been affected. All in all innocents from the Western World, which for some reason strikes some sort of sense of patriotism into Western people, don't know how, I'm from Australia myself.

Never discount the possibility, expect it even and if it doesn't happen you're better off for it, and at least if you expected it you'll be partially prepared to get away from the sticky mess that could come from an escalation in tensions.